BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Kentucky has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.87–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.87–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.944.2
20262.60.924.2
20272.50.904.2
20282.50.894.2
20292.50.874.1

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp1820181966
Bardwell 21320212006
Paintsville1219951979
Kehoe1119921966
Hodgenville 21120232008
Hegira920241988
Sewell Shop920231966
Beattyville820011966
Joy720231966
Pleasurevill720241979
Dixon620242005
Pippa Passes619971988
Merrimac620241967
Johnsonville620211966
Buena Vista620171966
Canton520241967
Keysburg520241968
Eastview520241967
Daniel Boone519881966
Morganfield520242022
Bays Fork520192000
Staffordsvil519971996
Beattyville 2520242006
Mckee420241968
Pine Ridge419781966

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.