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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Texas has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Texas: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.99 (95% range 0.61–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.99 (95% range 0.61–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.970.591.4
20270.980.601.4
20280.980.601.4
20290.990.611.4
20300.990.611.4

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyrna920101995
Diboll820251968
Wills Point820231994
Selden720251977
Lydia720251967
Union Hill720241994
Caledonia620251969
Massey Lake620251970
Athens620251968
Ola620251967
Liberty Hill620251971
Cayuga620251996
Burton620251996
Easton 2620252014
Morton520241970
Carlos520251993
Thornton 3520242018
Bonner520251994
Moon Lake 2520252012
Livingston420251971
Gause419971967
Crossroads420251967
Chandler420041968
Oak Grove 2420252003
Hearne420251998

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.