BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Texas has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Texas: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.99 (95% range 0.61–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.99 (95% range 0.61–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.581.3
20260.970.591.4
20270.980.591.4
20280.980.601.4
20290.990.611.4

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weches1020241995
Smyrna920101995
Oak Grove 2820242003
Wills Point820231994
Ola720241967
Weatherford720241974
Cayuga720241996
Union Hill720241994
Bonner720241994
Carlos620241993
Powell Park 2620242022
Town Bluff520241967
New Waverly520241969
Caledonia520241969
Morton520241970
Lydia520231967
Miller Grove520241971
Thornton 3520242018
Livingston420241971
Gause419971967
Chandler420041968
Selden420241977
Pidcoke 2420242019
Port Acres420241996
Fred420241995

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.