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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Tennessee has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+122%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Tennessee: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.4–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.4–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.35.6
20264.02.45.7
20274.02.45.7
20284.12.45.7
20294.12.45.7

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy1820241966
Humboldt1820241966
Collinwood1320241966
Indian Mound 21220232004
Mansfield1120241966
Silerton920241966
Pond Creek920241966
Jasper820241967
Corryton Rd820191966
Wrigley720221966
Red Bank719781966
Brownsville620241969
Campbellsville620171966
Lovell620191966
Oliver Spgs620221966
Moscow520241976
White House520191966
Soddy519801967
Climer520041968
Signal Mtn420241979
Sweetlips420231966
Lewis Forest420241966
Petersburg420191966
Union Hill420241967
Mt Olive420241966

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.