BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Florida has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+236%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Florida: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Florida is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.4–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Florida is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.4–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.43.25.5
20264.43.25.6
20274.53.35.6
20284.53.35.7
20294.63.45.8

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nobleton2020241987
Croom2020241987
Osceola1720241991
Callahan1520241987
Citrus Park1420241989
Green Swamp1320241987
Island Grove1120241992
Doctors Inlet 21120172008
Sanderson 21120242022
Dowling Park1020231987
Citrus1020242010
Flemington919991988
Laurel Hill920242010
Goethe920242010
San Antonio820241970
Childs820221966
Bloxham820221987
Winter Gardn820191987
Mt. Olive820242002
Seminole Hills 2820222012
Chassahowitz820241998
Belmore720241966
Betts720241987
Hixtown Swmp720231987
Mabel 2720192012

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.