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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Florida has surged: up 242% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+242%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Florida: up 242% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Florida is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.5–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Florida is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.5–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.53.35.7
20274.53.35.7
20284.63.45.8
20294.73.55.9
20304.73.55.9

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croom2120251987
Island Grove1720251992
Callahan1520241987
Citrus Park1520251989
St Augustine1420251967
Goethe1220252010
Olustee1220251992
Doctors Inlet 21120172008
Sanderson 21120242022
Polk City1020251970
Steinhatchee920251967
Kenansville920251968
Flemington919991988
Laurel Hill920252010
Green Swamp920251987
Hilliard820251966
Childs820221966
Pinecrest820251966
Winter Gardn820191987
Seminole Hills 2820222012
Osceola820251991
Citrus820252010
Dupuis W.E.A820251994
Belmore720241966
San Antonio620251970

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.