BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in California has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in California. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.40 (95% range 0.24–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.40 (95% range 0.24–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.240.54
20270.390.240.54
20280.390.240.54
20290.390.240.55
20300.400.240.55

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Genesee720241973
Offield Mtn520132011
Glen Ellen520021972
Harbor Lake 2520222014
Redwood N.P.520102004
Ono420121984
Cleveland Nf419941994
Pescadero420251992
Nubieber320071989
Fairfax320241976
Fallsvale319811972
Lake Cachuma319971974
Jackson319921986
Lockwood320251974
Lakeshore320241992
Glen Ellen 2320222005
San Benito Mtn.320052003
Cecilville320102010
Horse Creek220191978
Crescent Cty220251974
Hullville220131974
Pennington220251971
Westville220241971
Fish Rock220131970
Cottage Spgs219741969

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.