BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in California has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in California. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.24–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.24–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.230.54
20260.390.230.54
20270.390.240.54
20280.390.240.55
20290.390.240.55

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Genesee720241973
Higgins Corn720241981
Point Reyes520231971
Offield Mtn520132011
Glen Ellen520021972
Harbor Lake 2520222014
Redwood N.P.520102004
Ono420121984
Cleveland Nf419941994
Pescadero420241992
Nubieber320071989
Pennington320241971
Cohasset320181973
Fairfax320241976
Fallsvale319811972
Lake Cachuma319971974
Jackson319921986
Lakeshore320241992
Glen Ellen 2320222005
San Benito Mtn.320052003
Cecilville320102010
Horse Creek220191978
Hullville220131974
Westville220241971
Fish Rock220131970

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.