BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in South Dakota has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±271.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±271.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±271.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.52
20260.190.000.52
20270.190.000.52
20280.180.000.51
20290.180.000.51

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Fox420141992
Englewood420061992
Elk Mountain320042002
Raymond220151985
Roswell220121971
Britton220091969
Conde219831983
Ardmore219951980
Hill City220081992
Norbeck220021993
Lane 2220122000
Lennox120241972
Tripp120181971
Howard120161970
White Lake120092000
Geddes120061990
Winner119881976
Rosebud120102010
Volga120221967
Broadland119991999
Lane119991967
French Creek120032003
Wind Cave Np120062000
Wilmot120221970
Veblen120221974

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.