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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+581%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.43.5
20272.51.53.5
20282.51.53.5
20292.51.53.5
20302.61.63.6

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Osage Beach1320252000
Cascade1120251967
Centerville1120251994
Syracuse820241969
Bennett620251994
Gerald620252013
Viburnum620242014
Mincy620252014
Moselle620252000
Filley520251975
Centertown520251976
Huntsville520251967
Crane520251994
Lincoln520252013
Union519991990
Rueter 2520252023
Ironton419801974
Graydon420251975
Danville420251967
Barks420251994
Pineville320231974
Williamsvill320251994
Clementine 2320052005
House Springs320252017
Rueter320222022

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.