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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 580% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+580%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 580% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.43.5
20262.51.53.5
20272.51.53.5
20282.51.53.5
20292.61.63.6

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville1320241994
Graniteville1020241983
Rueter 2920242023
Syracuse820241969
Williamsvill820241994
Lincoln820242013
Centertown720221976
Mincy620242014
Bennett620241994
Viburnum620242014
Union519991990
Ironton419801974
Filley420241975
Huntsville420241967
Gerald420242013
Doe Run420242015
Bland420241995
Pineville320231974
Cascade320241967
Danville320241967
Rueter320222022
Barks320241994
Milford320232015
Osage Beach320242000
Moselle320242000

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.