BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Louisiana has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Louisiana is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.22–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Louisiana is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.22–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.243.3
20271.70.233.3
20281.70.233.3
20291.70.223.3
20301.70.223.2

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turkey Creek1519981998
Mount Union1420251998
Plettenberg1020221973
Easton719901967
Oakdale719941991
Greensburg620221988
Marion619961988
Evelyn620232009
Grayson520212009
Enterprise520252008
Gonzales520151998
Womack520251999
Ivan520131998
Many419921989
Norwood420252006
Zwolle420091998
Pine Prairie419971995
Ivan 2420252014
Fort Jessup320231998
Linville320251998
Fort Polk319751967
Chatham319751967
Fillmore319891968
Hargis 2320132013
Vinton 2320252011

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.