BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Oklahoma has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+129%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Oklahoma: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.34–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.34–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.301.1
20270.720.311.1
20280.730.321.1
20290.740.331.2
20300.750.341.2

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hee Mountain820241999
Big Cedar520241967
Goodwater520211992
Bethel420251993
Blanco219941967
Ouachita Nf220251992
Noble220111980
Sandbluff220251994
Matoy219951995
Pocola220151992
Heyburn220251998
Pushmataha220221994
Mcalester119741969
Phillips120001999
Mill Creek120041973
Mt. Herman120221998
Baron120211967
Canadian119761973
Indianola119851976
Holdenville120251970
Peoria119801980
Collinsville120061973
Douglas120072007
Wainwright119921992
Sickles120162016

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.