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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+236%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.99–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.99–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.963.9
20272.50.973.9
20282.50.974.0
20292.50.984.0
20302.50.994.0

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Chickasaw1920252012
Lake Mary1419871974
Holly Springs1420242013
Lucien1120081974
Corinth1120251974
Trace Attala1120192016
Delta N.F.1020181995
Embry1020251988
Forest920251972
Trace Choctaw920192012
Trace Central820252007
Trace Lorman820192016
Walthall719791970
Lake720251966
Lake Como720181983
Trace South620192008
Cockrum520241970
Columbia520181969
Scooba519821967
Amite River520132009
Oak Ridge Vick520182015
Scooba 2519871983
Sandy Creek420001993
Grenada Lake420191998
Fort Adams420221975

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.