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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Texas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has fallen sharply in Texas: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.30
20270.110.000.29
20280.110.000.29
20290.100.000.28
20300.100.000.28

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alexander St820251995
Smyrna 2520252023
Oakwood319761975
Fred320251995
Lydia320251967
Bon Wier320241996
Big Sandy Bith220242015
Neches Bith220162016
Thornton 2219981998
Morton220231972
Athens219951968
Weches220252000
Hearne120251998
Lance Rosier Bith120172017
Cayuga120252014
Chandler 2120162010
Town Bluff120251973
Livingston120041969
New Waverly120181969
Oak Grove119841977
Gause119971992
Diboll120241968
Caledonia120251970
Powell Park 2120252022
Crossroads120251977

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.