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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Alabama has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.12.5
20271.81.12.5
20281.81.12.5
20291.81.12.5
20301.81.12.5

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Epes2220241980
Youngtown1020251993
Lakeview1020251999
Vina920231996
Wedgeworth820251979
Warrior Std720251966
Whitehouse720251980
Holt620241993
Courtland620231999
Liberty City 2620252017
Sprott-Cahaba Riv620141999
Mt Olive520241966
Carrollton520251994
Elkmont520251990
Helicon520251996
Lanett420241967
Borden Springs 2420242001
Vernon420221996
Talladega420252002
Autaugaville420251996
St Florian320251974
Millerville320251970
Greensport320251966
Howard320251966
Maytown320251966

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.