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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.45.3
20273.92.45.3
20283.92.45.3
20293.92.45.3
20303.92.45.3

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine Mtn1720251993
Poyen1520071967
Marshall1520212011
Ozark Nf1220251991
Boston Mtn.1220251994
Four Lakes1120011994
Rupert1020241967
Compton1020221967
Crowley'S Ridge1020252011
Hatfield 2920252017
Stark920251967
Nance920251992
Zion820251967
Princeton820141998
Crows719911967
Waldron720251967
Hope520251967
Ashdown520231968
Fulton520251970
Ravenden Springs520152010
Rudy520252011
Princeton 2520222022
Poyen 2520252008
Old Milo420251967
Coal Hill420231977

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.