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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.35.2
20263.82.45.2
20273.82.45.2
20283.82.45.2
20293.82.45.2

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark Nf1620241991
Poyen1520071967
Marshall1520212011
Boston Mtn.1320241994
Four Lakes1120011994
Rupert1020241967
Compton1020221967
Hatfield 2920242017
Crowley'S Ridge920242011
Nance920241992
Magazine Mtn820211993
Princeton820141998
Crows719911967
Rudy720242011
Old Milo620241967
Zion620241967
Hope520241967
Ashdown520231968
Ravenden Springs520152010
Princeton 2520222022
Poyen 2520242008
Stark420241967
Coal Hill420231977
Havana420212010
Stephens420222010

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.