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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.56–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.56–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.483.4
20262.00.503.5
20272.00.523.5
20282.00.543.5
20292.00.563.5

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow2820241992
Pike S.F.1420131992
Scioto Trail1320131992
Dell920191993
Rome920241968
Shawnee S.F. 2820192001
Coal Run719921966
Newcomerstwn619951970
Cumberland420071967
Greasy Ridge419911966
Wayne N.F.320241992
Shawnee S.F.220001992
Zaleski S.F.220241992
Dresden220241966
Ash Ridge219991992
Scioto Furn220221993
Tick Ridge120111993
Mohican S.F.120241992
Ashley119911991
Middlefield119701970
Stonecreek120241996
Birmingham120241988
Coshocton119911991
Petersburg119991998
Harveysburg 2119991999

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.