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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.63.4
20262.51.63.4
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20292.51.63.4

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield1920241966
Silerton1720241968
Big Sandy1420241966
Collinwood1220241966
Silver Pt1020241966
Smokey Jct920221966
Indian Mound 2820232004
Sweetlips720231972
Elk Valley720221970
Lewis Forest520241966
Trace Lewis520172013
Pond Creek420241966
Walland419891966
Moscow320242003
Belotes Bend320171967
Jasper320241967
Brownsville220231967
Trenton220221966
Humboldt220241967
Indian Mound219971969
Wrigley220221966
Campbellsville220191966
Union Hill220241967
Glen220231972
Lovell219841967

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.