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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.63.5
20272.61.73.5
20282.61.73.5
20292.61.73.5
20302.61.73.5

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy1820251966
Silerton1720241968
Mansfield1420251966
Collinwood1220251966
Silver Pt1020241966
Smokey Jct920221966
Elk Valley820251970
Indian Mound 2820232004
Sweetlips720231972
Pond Creek720251966
Trace Lewis520172013
Lewis Forest420251966
Walland419891966
Signal Mtn320251979
Moscow320242003
Belotes Bend320171967
Jasper320251967
Brownsville220251967
Trenton220221966
Humboldt220241967
Indian Mound219971969
Wrigley220221966
Campbellsville220191966
Union Hill220241967
Lovell219841967

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.