BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Indiana has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Indiana: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.61–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.61–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.582.4
20261.50.592.4
20271.50.592.4
20281.50.602.4
20291.50.612.4

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia1620241999
Hoosier1520241990
Cross Plains1020241999
Belmont920241981
Corydon920241966
Cumback620211966
Indian Spgs420241983
Celestine420241979
Clear Spring320241981
Wallace320242000
Packertown220041978
Galveston220221982
New Phila220241982
Hebron119741974
Fowler120211976
Monticello119901990
Tipton119841977
Middletown119661966
Muncie119891989
Berne119751975
Pimento120232009
Brazil120071966
Spencer120241971
Azalia120241982
Sexton120111982

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.