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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Virginia has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has collapsed in Virginia: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.74
20260.040.000.71
20270.010.000.68
20280.000.000.67
20290.000.000.67

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clinchport819781967
Marion619821977
Hall420041972
Nat Tunnel420241981
Putnam320191969
Waverly319871978
Stickleyvill319901976
W Augusta220131983
Great Falls219661966
Rural Retrt220151982
White Stone220031966
Surry220191977
Elamsville220151978
Dryden220051991
Branchville220171966
Pine Mtn.220241996
Cape Charles220112004
Colonial Pky219921992
Star Tannery119941994
Taylorstown119971984
Churchville119951991
Stanley119981966
Tryme120141975
Edinburg119921973
Jerome119781978

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.