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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.000.62
20270.220.000.62
20280.220.000.61
20290.210.000.61
20300.210.000.60

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Craven Gap419741974
Arapahoe319931993
Arcola320231974
Sheep Ridge320191997
Maple Hill320182002
Cokesbury320211997
Wards Corner219671966
Kinston220221984
Saxapahaw219771973
Oakboro220101989
California219971978
Madison219771977
Linville219811981
Cypress Cr219951994
Kyle220091995
Oteen220191976
Shallotte119911966
Merrimon120111975
Raeford119981991
Fairmont119771972
Mashoes119741974
Beargrass119811981
Speed120241977
Jordan120061982
Rose119861973

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.