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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Kentucky has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.44.0
20262.71.44.0
20272.71.44.0
20282.71.44.0
20292.81.54.1

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth Cave North2520132009
Mammoth Cave1920141995
Beattyville 21520242006
Joy1120231982
Hegira1020241988
Phelps919971979
Pippa Passes819971988
Pine Ridge819781966
Paintsville819951979
Apex720242005
Bays Fork720191999
Staffordsvil719971996
Sunnybrook620211968
Riverqueen620242010
Morganfield620242022
Lebanon Junction520242000
Brownsville420242022
Cumberlnd Gp420181966
Johnsonville420211967
Sulphur Lick320231980
Bardwell320031967
Mckee320241970
Kings Mtn320231966
Hodgenville 2320222008
Shiloh220231969

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.