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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in South Carolina has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has risen sharply in South Carolina: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in South Carolina is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in South Carolina is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.80
20260.330.000.80
20270.330.000.80
20280.330.000.80
20290.330.000.80

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills320241996
Campobello320132010
Joanna320191999
Olar320102010
Adams Run320241988
Wagener220211979
Owings219921992
Salem220242015
Blacksburg220072006
Bennettsville220081998
Dale220061998
Owings 2220082008
Jamestown120041969
Hardeeville120191999
Rome120062006
Holly Hill120051987
Foreston119801980
New Holland119981967
Bishopville119921978
Walterboro120091971
Little Mtn119881966
Salem Xrd120121985
Landrum119801980
Plum Branch120101979
Ward120212021

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.