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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Kansas has surged: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+311%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Kansas is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Kansas is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.010.18
20270.100.020.18
20280.100.020.18
20290.100.020.19
20300.100.020.19

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Le Loup220162000
Olsburg220242000
Melrose120172017
Galesburg120122012
Bucyrus120252022
Olathe120181969
Dover120152012
Barclay119911987
Morehead120132006
Trading Post120252006
Grantville120181986
Rock Creek120212003
Severance120242001

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.