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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Kansas has surged: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+311%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Kansas: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Kansas is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Kansas is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.010.18
20260.100.020.18
20270.100.020.19
20280.100.020.19
20290.100.020.19

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post220242006
Le Loup220162000
Olsburg220242000
Melrose120172017
Galesburg120122012
Bucyrus120232022
Olathe120181969
Dover120152012
Barclay119911987
Morehead120132006
Grantville120181986
Rock Creek120212003
Severance120242001

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.