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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Florida has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-53%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Florida. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.09
20250.050.000.09
20260.050.000.09
20270.050.000.09
20280.050.000.09

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Apalachicola220061999
Covington219861980
Lovedale220102007
Defuniak Spr219931987
Miller Xrds220111988
Oak Grove120111972
Mossy Head120052005
Blountstown120151998
Broad Branch120142013
Miccosukee119961973
Seminole Hls119981987
Port St Joe120031971
Belmont120151996
Hilliard120092006
Laurel Hill120172017
Blackwater120071988
Betts120222015
Hixtown Swmp120232008
Pinetta119921992
Ft Mccoy120062006
Seminole Hills 2120132013
Cross City119921988
Oak Grove 2120172017
New Hope120112009

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.