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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in West Virginia has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Kentucky Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has collapsed in West Virginia: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 109% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 109% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.002.1
20270.770.002.1
20280.740.002.1
20290.710.002.0
20300.680.002.0

Kentucky Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stollings720211986
Breeden520241986
Yawkey420241966
Clear Creek320251988
Fayetteville319961980
Josephs Mill320231993
Albright319741966
Hanover220231980
Welch220221980
Hubbardstown220251966
Nicut220251986
Olcott220241966
Denmar220092003
Richwood219831982
Sugar Grove220181970
Smithfield220251993
Sleepy Creek219811976
Clinton220241966
Ruthbelle220131975
Hix120161970
Smoot120221980
Pedro120101979
Bramwell120211978
Ghent120231978
Pt Pleasant120251976

Kentucky Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.