BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Missouri has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Missouri is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.1–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Missouri is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.1–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.84.09.6
20276.84.09.7
20286.94.19.7
20296.94.19.7
20307.04.19.8

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne3120252016
New Hampton3020252014
Frazier2420241967
Watson2420251991
Kirksville2220251994
Luray2020252015
Rensselaer1920251971
Laclede1920251994
Sticklervill1820251970
Kahoka21820242002
Emden1820242017
Kahoka1619981967
Mcfall1620251994
Kearney1520251994
New Point1520251994
Madison1420241971
Hamilton1419851972
Union1419991990
Bolckow1319921967
Trenton1220251967
Gildehouse1219891978
Huntsville1020251967
Stet919951972
Frankford920251985
Moselle920252000

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.