BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Missouri has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.2–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 4.2–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.94.19.7
20266.94.19.7
20277.04.29.8
20287.04.29.8
20297.04.29.9

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trenton2920241967
Watson2520241991
Frazier2420241967
New Point2220241994
Elmo2120232016
New Hampton1920242014
Kahoka21820242002
Luray1820242015
Emden1820242017
Sticklervill1720241970
Kirksville1720241994
Kahoka1619981967
Auburn1620242014
Madison1420241971
Hamilton1419851972
Mcfall1420241994
Union1419991990
Rensselaer1320241971
Bolckow1319921967
Laclede1320241994
Frankford1320241985
Doe Run1320242015
Kearney1220241994
Gildehouse1219891978
Cameron1220231986

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.