BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Oklahoma has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-85%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has collapsed in Oklahoma: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.19
20250.050.000.19
20260.050.000.18
20270.050.000.18
20280.050.000.18

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heyburn419991999
Reed320011987
Hollis320011995
Phroso220122012
Phillips219941992
Beggs220061990
Choctaw220041990
Eagle City219931988
Peoria219801969
Beaver219931979
Skiatook220171988
Mill Creek120031974
Ouachita Nf120001997
Ardmore119951974
Randlett119901990
Baron119771977
Canadian119701970
Holdenville120101990
Noble120221976
Grimes119971997
Erick120111984
Welch120142014
Bartlesville119971992
Wakita119971969
Chester119751969

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.