BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Ohio has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+163%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Ohio: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Ohio is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Ohio is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.017
2026139.117
2027139.217
2028139.317
2029139.417

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kalida3320191967
Marion 23020242024
Ashley3020181988
Pittsfield2820241992
Botkins2620191992
Marion2520231966
Lattasburg2520241966
Fulton2520241966
Mohican S.F.2520241992
Lucerne2420241992
Meadowbrook2420211966
Darrtown2420211966
Ash Ridge2320211992
Valley City2320241995
Kenton2220241966
Keene2120231992
Baxter Ridge2020231998
Stonecreek2020241996
Hiram1920211992
Dresden1820241966
Enon1820241984
Garrettsvile1719911966
New Dover1720221966
Newcomerstwn1719951966
Tecumseh1719821966

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.