BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Ohio has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+154%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Ohio: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Ohio is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Ohio is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026139.017
2027139.117
2028139.217
2029139.317
2030139.417

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne3020251992
Ashley3020181988
Pittsfield2820241992
Botkins2620191992
Marion2520231966
Marion 22520252024
Meadowbrook2420211966
Darrtown2420211966
Ash Ridge2320211992
Keene2120231992
Kalida2020251967
Stonecreek2020251996
Mohican S.F.2020251992
Enon1920251984
Garrettsvile1719911966
New Dover1720221966
Lattasburg1720251966
Fulton1720251966
Newcomerstwn1719951966
Dresden1720251966
Tecumseh1719821966
Omega1720241968
Kenton1620251966
Lenox1520251966
Valley City1520251995

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.