BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in South Dakota has surged: up 739% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+739%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in South Dakota: up 739% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in South Dakota is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.6–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in South Dakota is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.6–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.54.48.7
20276.64.48.8
20286.74.58.8
20296.74.68.9
20306.84.69.0

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern House Wren in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Howard6220251970
Volga3320251967
Chamberlain2620111974
Lightning Cr2320251999
Britton2220231967
Wilmot1920251967
Veblen1820231972
Hazelrodt1820251992
Lennox1720251967
Promise1620111971
Lane1519991968
Tripp1320251967
Custer1320251967
Rochford1320181997
Lane 21320142000
French Creek1120051996
Ft Thompson1020111970
Wind Cave Np1020251999
Black Fox920171994
White Lake820111969
Crow Creek720231968
Winner620251976
Roswell620141969
Reva620251979
Pleasant Val620241997

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.