BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in South Dakota has surged: up 686% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+686%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in South Dakota: up 686% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in South Dakota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.4–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in South Dakota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.4–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.34.28.4
20266.44.38.5
20276.44.38.5
20286.54.48.6
20296.64.48.7

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern House Wren in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Howard4120241970
Chamberlain2620111974
Lightning Cr2520221999
Britton2220231967
Hazelrodt2020241992
Wilmot1920241967
Veblen1820231972
Promise1620111971
Custer1620241967
Volga1520241967
Lane1519991968
Tripp1420241967
Rochford1320181997
Lane 21320142000
French Creek1120051996
Ft Thompson1020111970
Forbes1020241968
Black Fox920171994
Lennox820241967
White Lake820111969
Wind Cave Np820241999
Crow Creek720231968
Volunteer720191967
Roswell620141969
Lacreek620231991

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.