BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Michigan has surged: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+258%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Michigan: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.3 (95% range 6.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.3 (95% range 6.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.96.611
20279.06.711
20289.16.811
20299.26.811
20309.36.912

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bell Oak 22520252016
Bravo2420231974
St Charles2320191967
Maple Grove2220251969
Belding 22220252004
Lawrence2120251969
Cohoctah2120252021
Juniata2020241966
New Troy1920241971
Howardsville1920251969
North Branch1919991974
Hungerford1920251991
Nashville1720251968
Chippewa Lk.1720251992
New Buffalo1720141992
Galesburg1520251966
Prattville1520211967
Harrietta1520251990
Lake City1420221971
Mottville1420251967
Hamburg 21420252006
Maple Rapids1320251987
Owendale1219941987
S Lyons1219921966
Pettysville1219791969

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.