BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Michigan has surged: up 267% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+267%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Michigan: up 267% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.1 (95% range 6.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.1 (95% range 6.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.86.511
20268.96.511
20279.06.611
20289.16.711
20299.16.811

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bell Oak 22920232016
Hungerford2520241991
Bravo2420231974
Lawrence2320241969
Howardsville2320241969
St Charles2320191967
Galesburg2220241966
Cohoctah2120242021
Juniata2020241966
New Troy1920241971
Coopersville1920241979
North Branch1919991974
Nashville1820241968
New Buffalo1720141992
Remus1520241974
Prattville1520211967
Big Blue Lk1420241979
Lake City1420221971
Belding 21420242004
Chippewa Lk.1420241992
Harrietta1320241990
Maple Rapids1220231987
Owendale1219941987
S Lyons1219921966
Pettysville1219791969

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.