BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in North Carolina has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in North Carolina: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.86 (95% range 0.50–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.86 (95% range 0.50–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.820.471.2
20270.830.481.2
20280.840.491.2
20290.850.491.2
20300.860.501.2

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern House Wren in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills2220252001
Todd1520251995
Mooresville920012001
Pinelog520232013
Eden420251987
Cherryville319661966
Craven Gap319751970
Murphy320152007
Sawmill320241990
Broad Creek220131993
Saxapahaw220231972
Call220251968
Cullowhee220251974
Linville220251976
Osmond220082001
Biscoe220091992
Durham220212017
Jackson220122012
Sheep Ridge120071995
Mashoes119821982
Uwharrie Nf119941993
Speed120061982
Kinston120221992
Jordan120241966
Rose120182018

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.