BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Alabama has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-26%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04
20290.020.000.04

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guntersville220172002
St Florian120102002
Swaim119921992
Pine Grove120042004
Woodville120092007
Brooksville120182015
Carter Grove120222022
Sunny Eve120132012
Greensport120052002
Smyer Lake120222022
Mt Olive120141997
Lakeview120132007
Choccolocco120101992
Kymulga120242024
Lanett120082008
Odenville120131998

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.