BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Texas has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-76%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Texas. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±175.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06
20290.010.000.06

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crossroads619711971
Laredo420052004
Oak Grove319871974
Winnie219971997
Utopia219851971
Oakwood219861986
Pidcoke220062006
Weches220102003
Clarendon220241994
Skellytown220212007
Zapata119871987
Arenosa Crk119711971
Lone Oak120001997
New Waverly119761971
Peach Creek119891989
Chandler119891989
Miller Grove119881988
Sadler120172017
Booker120081979
Miami120091981
Hackberry120092004
Dalhart119981997

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.