BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Connecticut has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Connecticut is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Connecticut is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.317
2026115.317
2027115.317
2028115.217
2029115.217

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Southington3220241973
Long Hill2620191972
Willimantic2020181967
Granby2020241988
Sherman1820191972
Mystic1520231973
Mid Haddam1520241973
New Hartford1519871972
No Woodbury1320241967
Danbury1320231968
Uncasville1220241973
Warren 21220242012
Buckingham1120221966
Westbrook1020241969
Greenwich1020181967
Warren920101972
Woodstock 2920242016
New Hartford220241995
E Hartland119921966
Woodstock120071968

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.