BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Arkansas has surged: up 846% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+846%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Arkansas: up 846% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arkansas is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arkansas is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.67
20260.300.000.67
20270.310.000.68
20280.310.000.68
20290.310.000.68

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Avoca1520241973
Stamps220232001
Harrisburg219721972
Lurton219761971
Old Milo120052001
Marshall120212021
Havana120102010
Princeton 2120222022
Hollywood120142014
Rudy120162011
Poyen 2120102010
Saffell119751975
Fulton120121995
Centerton120112010

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.