BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Arkansas has surged: up 846% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+846%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arkansas is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arkansas is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.67
20260.300.000.67
20270.310.000.68
20280.310.000.68
20290.310.000.68

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Avoca1520241973
Stamps220232001
Harrisburg219721972
Lurton219761971
Old Milo120052001
Marshall120212021
Havana120102010
Princeton 2120222022
Hollywood120142014
Rudy120162011
Poyen 2120102010
Saffell119751975
Fulton120121995
Centerton120112010

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.