BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Utah has surged: up 867% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+867%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Utah: up 867% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Utah is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.6–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±278.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±278.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Utah is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.6–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±278.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.54.7
20263.11.54.7
20273.21.54.8
20283.21.64.8
20293.21.64.9

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beck1919871968
Lost Cr. Res1820181995
Ant Flat-Ogden Can1820231994
Moon Lake 21520232004
Navajo Lake1420241986
Beck 21420181990
La Sal 21120062003
Randolph1120241992
Uintah Nf1119941987
La Sal920001999
Heber Mtn.920241996
La Sal 3920242007
Woodruff820242002
Jensen820242000
Fish Lake Nf820241992
Red Spur Mtn.720231997
Logan Canyon620191997
Lynn620231983
E. Bear Lake620221995
Oak City520241979
Gooseberry520241994
Hardware Ranch520231994
Cane Spr Des519931993
Altonah420151970
Lake Powell419961996

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.