BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.28–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.28–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.352.2
20271.30.332.2
20281.20.312.2
20291.20.292.2
20301.20.282.1

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown1320101967
Hebron1220221981
Iron Mountain 21020132012
Taylorstown 2920252012
Churchville820251966
Hebron 2820252023
Newbern619821968
Ivanhoe619681966
Nat Tunnel620251996
Rural Retrt620251982
Iron Mountain 3520232014
Star Tannery420251977
Jerome420251971
Great Falls419781966
Cornland420142000
Iron Mtn.420111992
Blacksburg420251989
Stanley320251966
Covington320241966
Fincastle320251967
Stickleyvill319901975
Brandy Station320252022
W Augusta220251981
Edinburg220241968
Partlow220151981

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.