BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.27–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.27–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.352.2
20261.30.332.2
20271.30.312.2
20281.20.292.2
20291.20.272.2

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown1320101967
Hebron1220221981
Iron Mountain 21020132012
Rural Retrt920241982
Stanley820241966
Hebron 2820242023
Taylorstown 2820242012
Newbern619821968
Ivanhoe619681966
Jerome520231971
Iron Mountain 3520232014
Star Tannery420241977
Great Falls419781966
Cornland420142000
Iron Mtn.420111992
Blacksburg420241989
Churchville320241966
Covington320241966
Stickleyvill319901975
Saltville320231969
Irisburg320241976
Shenandoa Np320242010
Edinburg220241968
Partlow220151981
Shipman220241972

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.