BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in New Hampshire has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in New Hampshire: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.9–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.9–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.71.97.5
20274.71.97.5
20284.71.97.5
20294.71.97.5
20304.71.97.5

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Northern House Wren in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover2720251966
East Kingston2420251999
Fitzwilliam1520251966
Epsom1320251966
Concord1220251966
Marlow1120251966
Walpole1020251966
Hopkinton920251966
Glen820251975
Peterborough720251966
Strafford720251966
Franconia720251966
Gilmantn I W620251969
Mt Chocorua620251968
Canterbury520251969
Lempster420251969
Jefferson Hl320251966
Brentwood219981966
Wilmot220251968
Milan220251966
Dixvil Notch220162016
Crawford Not119751968
Stratford120251966
Clarksville120211974
Jeffers Ntch120161993

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.