BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Kentucky has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Kentucky: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 2.3–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 2.3–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.16.9
20274.52.16.9
20284.62.27.0
20294.62.27.0
20304.72.37.1

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buena Vista1920171966
Mcbrayer1820251966
Sewell Shop1520251968
Glencoe1320221969
Plum1320251969
Pleasurevill1220251979
Sunnybrook1120221993
Cedar Grove920251969
Johnsonville920211980
Monticello820221993
Eastview820251969
Bays Fork820192000
Goshen719991966
Porter620251971
East Union620251977
Hodgenville 2620232008
Lebanon Junction620252000
Million519851967
Shiloh320252007
Hustonville320251971
Hodgenville320001971
Hudson320241976
Morganfield320252022
Keysburg220252008
Mckee220231972

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.