BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in North Dakota has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in North Dakota: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151020
2027151020
2028151120
2029151120
2030151120

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Northern House Wren in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh5620251968
Gorham5020251968
Turtle Mtns3720251980
Sheyenne Lk3120251980
Edgeley3020251980
Emerado3020251973
Tobacco2820191968
Abercrombie2620121967
Cooperstown2520251969
Walcott2420231967
Horsehead Lk2120251980
Forman1820251968
Stanley1820251968
Buchanan1520251967
Loraine1520191982
Dickinson1420251968
Carpio1420231967
Douglas Crk1420251982
Dunn Center1320251968
Braddock1320231988
Sydney1219831967
Kempton1220171967
Wild Rose1220251982
Solen1220252005
Roosevelt Pk1020191982

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.