BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in North Dakota has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in North Dakota: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151020
2026151020
2027151020
2028151020
2029151120

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Northern House Wren in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh4320241968
Turtle Mtns2920241980
Tobacco2820191968
Dickinson2720241968
Edgeley2620241980
Cooperstown2620241969
Abercrombie2620121967
Emerado2520241973
Walcott2420231967
Buchanan1720241967
Stanley1720241968
Forman1520241968
Loraine1520191982
Sheyenne Lk1520241980
Dunn Center1420241968
Carpio1420231967
Sydney1219831967
Kempton1220171967
Regan1120221969
Solen1120242005
Horsehead Lk1020241980
Gorham1020181968
Roosevelt Pk1020191982
Wimbledon920241981
Lakota820091968

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.