BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Kansas has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Kansas is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 2.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Kansas is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 2.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.62.812
20267.52.812
20277.52.812
20287.52.812
20297.52.812

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert4720241967
Ash Valley2920192000
Hodges2620142000
Hollenberg2420231969
Jewell 22420242006
Albert2320241967
St John2020191967
Gray2020191967
Seneca2020221967
Jamestown1920242000
Beloit1820032000
Phillipsburg1420221967
Ashland1320211969
Coldwater1220221969
Kanopolis1120241967
Hanover1120231969
Jewell1120051967
Hopewell920182000
Severance920242000
Chapman819811967
Leoville820181967
Susank820222000
Coats720191971
Gove720221970
Damar720162000

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.