BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Kansas has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+7%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Kansas is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 2.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Kansas is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 2.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.62.912
20277.62.912
20287.62.912
20297.62.912
20307.62.912

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Phillipsburg3920251967
Covert3420251967
Logan3320251967
Hollenberg2920251969
Ash Valley2920192000
Albert2820251967
Hodges2620142000
Jewell 22320252006
St John2020191967
Gray2020191967
Seneca2020221967
Hanover1920251969
Beloit1820032000
Ashland1320211969
Jamestown1320252000
Coldwater1220221969
Jewell1120051967
Hopewell920182000
Chapman819811967
Leoville820181967
Susank820222000
Coats720191971
Gove720221970
Damar720162000
Severance620252000

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.