BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in South Carolina has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has risen sharply in South Carolina: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in South Carolina is projected to rise about 53% by 2028 — from 0.09 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in South Carolina is projected to rise about 53% by 2028 — from 0.09 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.140.000.36
20250.140.000.36
20260.140.000.36
20270.140.000.36
20280.140.000.36

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern House Wren in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boiling Spgs419751967
New Holland219811981
Little Mtn219731970
Landrum219871987
Blacksburg220071999
Chesnee220141996
Campobello220222010
Salem220232012
Holly Hill119901990
Wagener119811981
Pendleton119761976
Barton Creek120161968
Plum Branch120142014
Anderson120171980
Carvers Bay120081999

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.