BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in New York has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in New York. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 5.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 5.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610.06.014
202710.06.014
202810.06.014
202910.06.014
203010.05.914

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern House Wren in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville4020251968
Oriskany Fls2820251967
Mt Hope2720101967
Durham2719761966
Harris Hill2620252005
Duanesburg2520251966
Penfield2520251968
Cobleskill2420231966
Castile2420251967
Westbrookvle2220191966
Parishville2220251974
Warwick2019741968
Dryden2020251966
North Easton2020251967
Cayuga1920251969
East Java1920251967
N Victory 21920211978
Watertown1920121967
Sheridan1820251966
N Victory1819721967
Rifton1719861967
Medusa1720241968
Hamburg1720251967
Naples1720251966
Purdy1720221980

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.