BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in New York has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in New York. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New York is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 5.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New York is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 5.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.85.814
20269.85.814
20279.85.814
20289.85.814
20299.85.814

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern House Wren in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duanesburg3520241966
Oriskany Fls3020241967
Churchville3020241968
Penfield2820241968
Mt Hope2720101967
Durham2719761966
Canadice L2620241968
Naples2620241966
Cobleskill2420231966
Westbrookvle2220191966
Dryden2220241966
Castile2120241967
Warwick2019741968
Cayuga2020241969
Hamburg2020241967
Parishville2020241974
N Victory 21920211978
Watertown1920121967
North Easton1920241967
Kasoag1820241966
N Victory1819721967
Rhinebeck1720241966
Rifton1719861967
Medusa1720241968
Sheridan1720241966

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.