BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Arizona has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Arizona: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arizona is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arizona is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.25.1
20273.21.35.2
20283.31.35.2
20293.31.35.3
20303.31.45.3

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine5620251992
Mt. Graham3420251995
Sprucedale3320251992
Aztec Peak1819781974
Tonto Vill.1320252001
Happy Jack1320251985
Blue1119911974
Williams1120252001
Carr Mtn1020251986
Dry Park720251992
Portal620251980
Prescott620251976
Flagstaff520251988
Rucker220071996
Sawmill220141988
Maine220192014
Seligman220082008
Mt Trumbull119791974
Dragoon120002000
Wikieup120102000
Mormon Lake119751968
San Simon119791979
Patagonia120041995
Sunizona119831983
Forest Lakes119961995

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.