BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Arizona has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Arizona: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+216%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.14.9
20263.01.15.0
20273.11.25.0
20283.11.25.0
20293.21.25.1

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine6320231992
Mt. Graham5720231995
Sprucedale3220231992
Aztec Peak1819781974
Dry Park1520241992
Prescott1320221976
Flagstaff1220221988
Blue1119911974
Happy Jack1020241985
Portal820241980
Rucker220071996
Sawmill220141988
Williams220192001
Maine220192014
Tonto Vill.220212001
Seligman220082008
Carr Mtn220241986
Mt Trumbull119791974
Dragoon120002000
Wikieup120102000
Mormon Lake119751968
San Simon119791979
Patagonia120041995
Sunizona119831983
Forest Lakes119961995

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.