Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern House Wren Population Trend in Arizona
Northern House Wren in Arizona has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.
13×Since 1970
29Routes In State
54Years
Notable Northern House Wren Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern House Wren has surged in Arizona: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+216%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
1.2–5.195% range
±60%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| 2026 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
| 2027 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.0 |
| 2028 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.0 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Arizona
| Alpine | 63 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Mt. Graham | 57 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Sprucedale | 32 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Aztec Peak | 18 | 1978 | 1974 |
| Dry Park | 15 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Prescott | 13 | 2022 | 1976 |
| Flagstaff | 12 | 2022 | 1988 |
| Blue | 11 | 1991 | 1974 |
| Happy Jack | 10 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Portal | 8 | 2024 | 1980 |
| Rucker | 2 | 2007 | 1996 |
| Sawmill | 2 | 2014 | 1988 |
| Williams | 2 | 2019 | 2001 |
| Maine | 2 | 2019 | 2014 |
| Tonto Vill. | 2 | 2021 | 2001 |
| Seligman | 2 | 2008 | 2008 |
| Carr Mtn | 2 | 2024 | 1986 |
| Mt Trumbull | 1 | 1979 | 1974 |
| Dragoon | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Wikieup | 1 | 2010 | 2000 |
| Mormon Lake | 1 | 1975 | 1968 |
| San Simon | 1 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Patagonia | 1 | 2004 | 1995 |
| Sunizona | 1 | 1983 | 1983 |
| Forest Lakes | 1 | 1996 | 1995 |
Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States
alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.