BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Minnesota has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Minnesota: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Minnesota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Minnesota is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025107.113
2026107.113
2027107.113
2028107.113
2029107.113

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Worthington4220242004
Knapp3920241967
St Stephen3820161967
Tracy3620242004
Beltrami3220241967
Whitewater3120001994
Ash Creek3020241975
Austin3020231993
Greenbush2820241993
Chatfield 22820242003
Chandler2720231969
Evergreen2620241967
Appleton2520241978
Redwood Fall2320241978
Lude2220231978
Chatfield2119991967
Brook Park2120241998
Chokio North2120241993
Oklee2020211969
Fairmont2020231993
Frontenac1920241993
Caledonia 21920242013
Minnetonka1820241969
Hartland1720171967
Huntley1720241967

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.