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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Minnesota has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+101%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Minnesota: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Minnesota is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Minnesota is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.213
2027107.214
2028107.314
2029107.314
2030107.314

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville3820251968
Knapp3820251967
Chandler3720251969
Fairmont3120251993
Whitewater3120001994
Austin3020231993
Tracy3020252004
Chatfield 23020252003
Ash Creek2920251975
Worthington2920252004
Le Roy2820251993
Beltrami2620251967
Redwood Fall2420251978
Appleton2320251978
Evergreen2320251967
Chatfield2119991967
Huntley2120251967
Lakeville2120251968
Courtland2020251978
Oklee2020211969
Frontenac1920241993
Glyndon1820251978
Hartland1720171967
St Stephen1720251967
Caledonia 21720252013

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.