BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Washington has surged: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+222%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Washington: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Washington is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.8–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Washington is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.8–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.56.7
20265.23.66.7
20275.23.76.8
20285.33.76.9
20295.43.86.9

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twisp4020241969
Turnbull Nwr3520231993
Ewan3420191983
Ellensburg2920241981
Lake Chelan2520241988
E. Mt. Adams2120241995
Pomeroy1820241992
Reardan1420241968
Leavenworth1220241984
Yakima1220241993
Snowden1120241971
Waitsburg1120041994
Chewelah1020211977
Deer Park1020151994
Mcchord1020151996
Rainier920191993
Malden820241998
L. Wenatchee820241993
Nighthawk720241992
Tonasket620181982
Blewett Pass620241992
Laurier620221997
Ewan 2620242023
Cougar520231990
Wilbur520241983

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.