BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Montana has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+101%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Montana: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Montana is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Montana is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.63.97.2
20275.63.97.3
20285.64.07.3
20295.74.07.4
20305.74.17.4

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clyde Park5420252018
Reed Point5320251977
Highwood2720251968
Custer 22720252024
Custer2120222019
Church Hill1820252017
St Mary1520081972
Forsyth1520231980
Chestnut1420251968
Brandenberg1420251968
Heart Butte1420252015
Pagil Gulch1420252015
Fort Logan1420252018
Freeman Creek1320162015
Muddy Creek1320152015
Chuffey Spring1320252016
Laurel1220251969
Augusta1120251976
Jordan1120241968
Chinook1020252015
Maynard Coulee1020252017
Willow Creek 2920251982
Red Rock820251978
East Glacier Park820252015
Miles City820252015

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.