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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Montana has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+106%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Montana: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Montana is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.0–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Montana is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.0–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.97.2
20265.63.97.3
20275.64.07.3
20285.74.07.4
20295.74.07.4

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed Point5220241977
Clyde Park3220242018
Brandenberg2720191968
Highwood2120241968
Custer2120222019
Savage2020211978
Church Hill1920242017
Laurel1820221969
St. Mary 21820242009
St Mary1520081972
Forsyth1520231980
Augusta1420241976
Freeman Creek1320162015
Muddy Creek1320152015
Fort Logan1320242018
Custer 21320242024
Glen1220241977
Maynard Coulee1220242017
Jordan1120241968
Kalispell1020241970
Two Dot1020241976
Heart Butte1020242015
Chinook1020242015
Pagil Gulch1020242015
Brunzell Slough1020242015

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.