BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.25–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.25–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.242.4
20261.30.242.4
20271.30.242.4
20281.30.252.4
20291.30.252.4

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern House Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla1920231973
Cloudcroft1720241975
Emory Pass1420241993
Reserve1320231993
Angel Fire720021992
Claunch 2720242001
Gallinas620241992
Mt. Taylor 2520242014
Carrizozo419741974
Pinon320001994
Bluewater Lake320211999
Ojo Sarco220241968
Capulin219931993
Fence Lake220101979
Dulce220242000
Angel Fire 2220242005
Mt. Taylor220121993
Vallecitos220241994
Capitan Mtn.219941994
La Cienega119941971
Pecos119981979
Maxwell120111998
Stinking Lk.119991994
Quemado119951993
Mountainair120232019

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.