BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Vermont has surged: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+361%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Vermont: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Vermont is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Vermont is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.3–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.72.17.3
20264.72.17.3
20274.82.27.4
20284.82.27.5
20294.92.37.5

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand Isle2020241967
St Johnsbury1420241971
North Pownal1320241966
Fletcher1220241968
Shaftsbury1120241966
S Wallingfrd1020221966
Post Mills920241966
W Rutland920241966
Landgrove820241966
East Calais620241975
Hardwick620241970
Hinesburg519941977
Stowe520241988
Marlboro420241966
Stratton420241966
S Reading420241966
Gaysville420211967
East Haven320241980
Middlesex320241968
Colchester320241986
Newbury 2320232008
Bristol320181995
Northfld Fls120211980
Newbury120041987
Greensboro120241971

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.