BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Vermont has surged: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+369%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern House Wren Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Vermont: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Vermont is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.5–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Vermont is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.5–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.92.27.6
20275.02.37.7
20285.02.37.7
20295.12.47.8
20305.22.57.8

Northern House Wren Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher1520251968
Gaysville1220251967
North Pownal1120251966
Shaftsbury1120251966
Middlesex1120251968
Post Mills1020251966
S Wallingfrd1020221966
W Rutland1020251966
East Haven1020251980
Grand Isle1020251967
Bristol1020251995
St Johnsbury720251971
East Calais620251975
Hardwick620241970
Landgrove520251966
Hinesburg519941977
Stowe520241988
S Reading420241966
Colchester320241986
Newbury 2320232008
Stratton220251966
Northfld Fls220251980
Marlboro120251966
Newbury120041987
Greensboro120251971

Northern House Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.