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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Missouri has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Missouri is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Missouri is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.053.1
20271.50.033.0
20281.50.023.0
20291.50.003.0
20301.50.003.0

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamilton1919851972
Kearney1920251994
Filley1719941994
Rockingham1720251969
Frazier1220241967
Harrisonville1220252017
Kingsville1120251992
Sticklervill820251970
Weston720222013
Bolckow719921967
Norborne620232006
Sni Mills619901967
Huntsville620251967
Tarkio619881968
Danville520251967
Syracuse520011973
Trenton520221967
New Point520251994
Woodlandville520252013
Emden520242017
Frankford520251985
Lucerne420252019
Mcfall420251994
Union419991990
Barnard320221999

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.