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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan has surged: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+217%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Michigan: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026138.818
2027149.018
2028149.118
2029149.318
2030149.419

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Valley 23920252004
Walloon Lake 23120242005
Cohoctah2920252021
Cedar Run2819991994
Cunard2620211974
Almena2620151993
Mayfield2520252000
Ontonagon2220191967
Pleasant Val2219971967
Galesburg2220251967
Harrietta2220251990
Ishpeming1920251980
Walloon Lake1920041977
Frederic1920031971
Scottville1820251968
Oberlin1820151973
St Charles1820191968
No Bradley1820251972
Belding 21820252004
Lapeer1820252000
Herman1720221983
Howardsville1620251969
Pickford1620251973
Hartland1620111992
Imp Lake1620191992

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.