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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+205%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Michigan: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025138.818
2026138.918
2027149.118
2028149.218
2029149.418

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Valley 23620242004
Walloon Lake 23120242005
Cedar Run2819991994
Cunard2620211974
Almena2620151993
Mayfield2320222000
Ontonagon2220191967
Brocky Lake2220241980
Pleasant Val2219971967
Cohoctah2020242021
Walloon Lake1920041977
Frederic1920031971
Oberlin1820151973
St Charles1820191968
Sand Lake1820241978
Herman1720221983
Crystal Fls1720241980
Big Blue Lk1720241979
Howardsville1720241969
Ishpeming1620231980
Hartland1620111992
Imp Lake1620191992
Harrietta1520241990
Cluster Lakes1520102006
Maple Grove1420241967

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.