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Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Maine has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Maine: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Maine is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Maine is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121
2030161121

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brooks5220211977
Hermon4020211966
Forest Sta2820001966
Westbrook2620241977
Turner2520101972
Northfield2519811976
Brownfield2420092009
Topsfield2319961978
Charleston2120211975
Cornville2120252012
Waite2019771977
Ft Fairfield2020051993
Greenwood1920251966
Manchester1919951971
East Troy1920211972
Harmony1920251967
Turner 21920252011
Washburn1820051979
Reeds1720251983
Ludlow1719981968
Wilson Mills1520251983
Bowdoin Ctr1520211971
Aurora1520211975
Kittery Pt1420251966
Warren1419901973

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.