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Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Maine has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+106%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Maine: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151021
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turner 23520242011
Charleston3320191975
Brooks3220191977
Forest Sta2820001966
Westbrook2620241977
Turner2520101972
Northfield2519811976
Cornville2520242012
Brownfield2420092009
Topsfield2319961978
Brownfield 22120242010
Waite2019771977
Ft Fairfield2020051993
Reeds1920241983
Manchester1919951971
Hermon1920191966
Carrying Pl1820241979
Washburn1820051979
Eastbrook1720241971
Ludlow1719981968
Hancock1620241969
Greenwood1520241966
Bowdoin Ctr1520211971
Harmony1520241967
Aurora1520211975

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.